Blaine Henry/Sherdog illustration
We get more middleweight action with a Top 5 matchup in theUFC on ESPN 47 main event this Saturday at the UFC Apex in LasVegas. JaredCannonier and MarvinVettori look to make their case for another title shot with awin. Vettori is an indestructible force with an iron chin, andCannonier has a nuclear arsenal attached to his shoulders.
Let’s examine the potential paths to victories for the twocontenders:
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Cannonier Cannot Rely on Power Alone
Cannonier is a shredded power puncher. Coming down from heavyweightall the way to middleweight, a lot of his power remains. His UFCrun has been somewhat spotty, but middleweight is truly his home.Since his middleweight debut in 2018, Cannonier has beaten some ofmiddleweight’s best, all while losing only to the elite. At 6-2 inthe division, his only losses are to former champion RobertWhittaker and current two-time champion IsraelAdesanya. After his loss to Adesanya, he bounced back with aclose split decision win over SeanStrickland at UFC Fight Night 216.
In his more recent fights, Cannonier has started an evolutionarytransformation that sees him going from being the power puncher toa smarter fighter with more in his tool belt. It started with theloss to Whittaker. We can overlook the Adesanya fight. AnythingCannonier could have learned and implemented in that bout wasalready forgotten by “The Last Stylebender.” Cannonier fightssmarter and uses his footwork to get him in good positions, and wecan actually see him setting traps against opponents likeStrickland and DerekBrunson. While he has not been able to put together the powerwith the footwork just yet, Cannonier is getting close.
Blaine Henry/Sherdog illustration
Against Strickland, a similar jab-heavy fighter, Cannonier switchedstances on the step in to close the gap and get into the pocket.(1) Starting out in orthodox (left hand/foot forward), Cannoniersteps in with his rear leg to show Strickland a huge right hand. Heeven (2) dips down as if to leap into the punch. This causesStrickland to instinctively raise his hands. In typical Stricklandfashion, he (3) parries down at the left hand that Cannonierflashes, which opens up the lane for a (4) lead right hook, similarto how AlexPereira set up Strickland with the opposite blow.
The reason this works so well is because of how prone Strickland isto reacting to any big motion thrown at him. With Cannonier makinghuge steps in and showing a left cross, Strickland can only holdout on parrying for so long. Vettori is not so predictable and doesnot bite on these types of feints all the time. He is not immune,however, as we saw against Adesanya, and often just blocks thepunches with his head. Cannonier will have to land clean to get therespect from Vettori and get any sort of meaningful reaction out ofhim.
Vettori’s iron chin, which basically makes him invincible againstanything, is likely his best asset, so for Cannonier, body workwill be his better option. Going to the body will lower Vettori’shands and make blocking Cannonier’s bigger shots that much harder.Vettori also likes to plod forward, but if Cannonier can catch himwith some cleaner shots, he could have the opportunity to back theItalian up. Once Cannonier gets someone to the fence, he generallylikes to take his time and make his opponents make a mistake.
Going back to the Strickland fight, we see how Cannonier sets himup against the fence to help immobilize him. In that fight,Cannonier was 24 of 35 on the low kicks. Cannonier actually doesthrow a decent number of low kicks, and I’m a big fan of them.Slowing your opponent down, taking away his power and even stoppingyour foe are all benefits you can gain from kicking the legs.
Blaine Henry/Sherdog illustration
In the figure above, we see Cannonier actually faking an exit forStrickland, guiding him out the side where he wants to kick. (1)Cannonier would push him back to the fence, and Strickland, who hasshown in the past that he plans to stay nowhere near the cage inthis fight, wants very badly to leave. (2) Cannonier drops a littlelow, dipping to his left, and makes Strickland think a left hook iscoming. The way out is to the left, but this is exactly whatCannonier wants, and (3) as Strickland leaves, he gets smashed witha low kick.
Vettori is not the most technical striker in a sense, but with thenature of a southpaw-versus-orthodox matchup, Cannonier will haveto rely on his trickery and power to get past him. Kicking from asouthpaw stance could give Cannonier some benefit, and I actuallylook for him to go to southpaw more than usual this fight.Cannonier has a tough fight ahead but so does Vettori.
The Pride of Italy
Here’s a fun fact: Vettori’s last four opponents have been RomanDolidze, Whittaker, Paulo Costaand IsraelAdesanya. They have gone an astonishing 82 of 84 on the lowkicks combined. Adesanya is the only one who missed the leg kickswhile throwing half of them in total. Knowing that Cannonier likesto come out and kick, Vettori is going to have to do somethingabout it. If he fails to check kicks, it will be a long night ofcrippling immobility.
Checking the kick is not the only way to keep fighters fromkicking. There’s also backing them up and coming forward. Putting afighter on the back foot is a good way to keep him from beingcomfortable enough to kick. Vettori is fond of the double jab tocross—a great tool to with which to back up someone.
Doubling up on the jab works great to catch someone slacking and toback them up, all while having an opportunity for a strong cross.As seen above, a deep step in on a second jab after your opponenthas reacted by pulling backwards to the first jab is extraeffective and can open up the cross.
With Vettori having such a strong chin, he is not scared to be inthe pocket with someone. He often does his best work there. On topof that, we have seen Cannonier make some bad decisions in the pastin the pocket that resulted in his being taken down. He has madesome good decisions, too, but if Vettori is betting on his chin andtrying to pile on damage, he will have to go through the fire andflames to do so.
Blaine Henry/Sherdog illustration
Once again, we look at Strickland. In this exchange, (1) Stricklanddecided he was not stepping back, and Cannonier was coming forward.As Cannonier (2) throws an overhand right, Strickland gets behindhis lead shoulder and actually rolls with the punch while lookingfor a left hook. The combo works nicely together and can be quiteeffective if you have good timing. Notice how Cannonier’s left handis down, however. While rolling, Strickland picks up on this and(3) nails Cannonier with a right cross.
Vettori and Teofimo?
Vettori has not shown much of a roll and likes to lean backinstead. Vettori needs to be careful of this and not get caughtleaning, or he risks Cannonier stepping through a punch.
With this being a southpaw-versus-orthodox matchup, there are somenuances that could make or break this fight. We were treated to aboxing masterclass on June 10 with Teofimo Lopez dethroningincumbent junior welterweight champion JoshTaylor, a southpaw. Vettori is the southpaw in this case, butthe techniques work just the same, only mirrored. Teofimo providesa great template on how to handle an open-stance matchup like theone Vettori faces.
Blaine Henry/Sherdog illustration
Cannonier is likely going to want to use his size to his advantage.For Vettori, the smaller fighter, keeping Cannonier off of him willbe important. Lopez deals with this in a rather MMA manner. We seeTaylor (1) step in for the outside advantage and overwhelm Lopez.(2) As Taylor steps in, Lopez keeps his lead arm between himselfand his opponent. Lopez then physically (3) pushes Taylor off andaway to keep the distance on his terms.
Now, this is not foolproof and does not necessarily stop atakedown. This path would be better suited if Cannonier isinsistent on getting in the pocket and landing shots. If Cannonierwants a takedown, then the usual defense will be ideal. Rememberthe outside-foot advantage, as it is something Vettori uses well.He plagued Costa with it.
Blaine Henry/Sherdog illustration
Early in the fight, Vettori established control of the outside-footposition on Costa and it really threw things off for the Brazilian.(1) Jabbing to step in and not eat return fire, Vettori will (2)hop in with his lead foot to the outside of Costa. This lines theleft hand of Vettori up, and Costa can either cover up, circle intothe punch or circle backwards over the tripping point of theItalian’s lead leg. Costa eats a left, and to avoid any power shotscoming back his way, (3) Vettori pivots out to his right and awayfrom the power right of his adversary.
Circling away from the power hand will be incredibly important forVettori. Cannonier hits harder than anyone he has ever faced.Before Vettori’s body work starts to kick in, another staple of hisgameplan, he will want to make sure to stay clear of the bigpunches from Cannonier. Circling back to the double jab fromearlier and the outside-foot position and combining it all in a potmaking a nice roux, we come to our final diagram.
Blaine Henry/Sherdog illustration
Vettori will inevitably back Cannonier up with all the activitylike jabs and crosses, crowding with the footwork and body work,and will (1) be in a position like he is against Costa above. Costais leaning against the fence and Vettori will step into the pocket.Instead of stepping in on the jab, Vettori (2) will split the guardwith a lead uppercut underneath Costa’s guard. He will then (3)step in and overwhelm Costa. With the outside-foot position andagainst the fence, Costa can only exit to the right. Costa did agreat job framing off of Vettori to exit that way, and the Italiandid not have an opportunity to throw. However, it will be anecessity for Vettori to capitalize on these positions he hascreated. He has to know where his opponent can go.
The path to Adesanya is long, and it is even longer for Vettori,who has already lost to him twice. With that said, knocking off acontender like Cannonier just eliminates one more option for thechamp to choose.
